The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) is projecting that the nation’s economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in year 2021, higher than the 1.5 per cent growth forcast by the International Monetary Fund(IMF).
The NESG in arriving at the figure identified eight key policies and events that will help shape the outlook of Nigerian economy this year.
According to the group’s 2021 Macroeconomic Outlook Report launched virtually on Tuesday, and titled, “Four Priorities for the Nigerian economy in 2021 and Beyond,”, for Nigeria’s economy to get back on track, there is need for a high, robust and sustained growth that will deliver significant reduction in unemployment and poverty.
The report said government’s most important agenda in 2021 must be to address these problems as a foundation for economic recovery in the short term and inclusive economic growth in the future.
The 77-page document notes that in consonance with the expected recovery of the global economy in 2021, Nigeria is also projected to exit the recession this year, as business activities are expected to pick up gradually.
The report also pointed out that Nigeria needs more than a simple GDP rebound, especially taking into consideration the last recovery cycle.
The NESG report noted that the key policies and events that will shape the nation’s economy this year will include mass production and administration of COVID-19 vaccines globally, implementation of Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), introduction of special bills by the Central Bank of Nigeria in order to manage excess liquidity in the system, and OPEC+ agrees to boost oil output.
Others are: COVID-19 partial lockdown and social distancing; completion of the Lagos-Ibadan Railway Project; Early implementation of the 2021 Appropriation Bill and the Reopening of land borders.
“The new strain of the virus could however slow recovery in 2021” the report said.
The NESG predicted that the Nigerian economy would grow by 2.9 per cent in 2021, and that it would achieve a sustained high growth rate up to 2025.
It said projected revenue to increase by 23.3 per cent in 2021 and said exchange rate will become stable and key inclusive growth indicators such as unemployment and poverty rates will gradually reduce overtime.
- NESG CEO,Laoye Jaiyeola, in his remarks, said many of the challenges encountered in 2020 will persist, or perhaps become amplified just as “the expectations of citizens and the business community on the government to address these challenges,”.
Jaiyeola said a lot more efforts are needed to get Nigeria on the path of positive economic growth that will deliver a reduction in unemployment and poverty.
He outlined the four priorities areas to include macroeconomic stability, policy and regulatory consistency, sectoral reforms and human capital development.
“The overall goal must be to attain a favourable business environment and improve the welfare of the average Nigerian,” he maintained.