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Active Mobile Subscribers Drop 30% YoY in Q3 2024 Despite Teledensity Adjustment

Active Mobile Subscriptions Drop 30% YoY in Q3 2024 Despite Teledensity Adjustment

…Active Subscribers Plummet to 153.32 Million in Q3 2024

Nigeria’s telecommunications sector witnessed a decline in active mobile subscriptions in the third quarter of 2024, despite an upward adjustment in the country’s teledensity metric.

According to data obtained from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and industry reports, the number of active mobile subscriptions in Nigeria fell to 153,323,316 as of September 2024.

The number of active mobile subscriptions in the country plummeted from 221.34 million in September 2023 to 153.32 million in September 2024, marking a significant decline of approximately 30%. When compared to the result in the fisrt quarter of 2024, the 153.32 million in September 2024 represents a decrease of 31% compared to the 219.30 million (219,304,281) subscribers reported in March 2024.

Findings from Business Remarks revealed that the decline can be attributed primarily to the NCC’s enforcement of the mandatory Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) registration and linking with National Identification Numbers (NIN). This policy resulted in the deactivation of a significant number of improperly registered SIM cards.

While the NCC’s recent adjustment to the teledensity calculation methodology has led to an increase in the overall figure, the decline in active mobile subscriptions remains a significant concern for the industry.

Market Share Breakdown

Looking at the individual operators, MTN Nigeria, the country’s largest mobile network operator (MNO), maintained its lead with approximately 81.8 million active subscribers in September 2024. However, this figure likely reflects a slight decline from March 2024. Airtel Networks followed closely with around 63.36 million subscribers, while Globacom held a market share of approximately 62.19 million subscribers. 9mobile, the fourth MNO, experienced the most significant decline, dropping to an estimated 11.7 million active mobile subscribers in September 2024.

Teledensity Adjustment and Impact

It’s important to note that the NCC recently adjusted its methodology for calculating teledensity, which is a measure of mobile phone penetration. The revised calculation takes into account Nigeria’s updated population projections from the Nigerian Population Commission. This adjustment led to an increase in the baseline teledensity figure.

Also Read: Nigeria Mobile Subscriptions to Hit 246 Million in 2025 – Study

As a result, despite the decrease in active mobile subscriptions, Nigeria’s teledensity stood at 102.97% in September 2023. However, the NCC’s September 2024 data using the new methodology is not yet publicly available.

Industry Outlook

While the immediate impact of the NIN-SIM linkage policy has resulted in a decline in subscriber numbers, industry analysts believe the long-term outlook remains positive. The stricter regulations are expected to enhance security and transparency in the telecoms sector, fostering investor confidence and paving the way for future growth.

Furthermore, Nigeria’s burgeoning digital economy continues to drive demand for mobile internet services. As network operators invest in infrastructure expansion and service quality improvement, the number of active subscribers is expected to rebound in the coming quarters through innovative services and to bridge the digital divide gap in Nigeria as recommended by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).

However, the overall impact of the NIN-SIM linkage policy on the sector’s growth remains to be seen.

 

 

 

 

About Bukola Olanrewaju

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